Tax estimator: forecast to 2025 – additional income expected

Released on 11.11. 2021

  • It is expected that the federal, state and local governments can expect significant additional income. Photo: Monika Skolimowska

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Because of the pandemic, the federal, state and local governments had to get by with less tax revenue. Now it is becoming apparent: The traffic light parties could get more financial leeway than expected.

Berlin (dpa) – Can the traffic light parties plan more money than expected in the coalition agreement? An indication of this is provided on Thursday by the Tax Estimation Working Group with its forecast for the years up to 2025.

It is expected that the federal, state and local governments can expect significant additional income because the economy is finally picking up again after the Corona crisis.

Since 2020 due to lockdowns and the reluctance to consume of the citizens, significantly less money flowed into the state coffers. Indications that the mood is brightening are the economic forecast of the federal government and the report of the «economic experts» advising the government. Accordingly, the upswing will come later than expected and no longer this year. From 2022 the tendency then points strongly upwards, they predict.

The SPD, Greens and FDP could thus get new leeway during the ongoing coalition negotiations. So far, the negotiators have faced a financing problem. You have stipulated that taxes should not be increased significantly and that the debt brake should not be changed. At the same time, the traffic light parties want to invest around 11 billion euros more than before in climate protection, digitization and education. At some point, the billions of debts raised in the Corona crisis will also be repaid.

DGB: Make the super-rich more responsible

The optimistic expectations are no reason for the prospective coalitionists to rest, warned the German Trade Union Federation (DGB). “The better income due to the economic situation can neither replace loan financing for investments nor a fairer tax system,” said board member Stefan Körzell of the German press agency. Small and medium incomes should be relieved and the super-rich should be given more responsibility. The SPD and the Greens had promised this in their election programs – after the explorations with the FDP, however, tax increases for the wealthy were ruled out.

Körzell sees this as good news for employees in the federal states Wage dispute. Employers couldn’t shirk a decent wage increase given the positive outlook, he said. There are currently warning strikes in the wage dispute, for example in clinics, daycare centers and schools.

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