Berlin (dpa) – German industry is benefiting from the recovery of the global economy and, according to the research and consulting firm Prognos, will grow strongly despite current delivery bottlenecks 2021.
Many service companies, on the other hand, would find it difficult to come up with a good annual result, according to a Prognos industry forecast that is available to the German Press Agency. Numerous domestic market-oriented service providers were weakened again by the restrictions to combat the third wave of pandemics last winter. The lockdown had hit the hospitality industry and parts of the retail sector, among other things in the coming year by 4.3 percent. “We expect that a good two thirds of the macroeconomic losses from 2020 can be made up for this year.” 2022 economic output will again be higher than before the crisis. “This means that the German economy is still well below a hypothetical development without the Covid 19 pandemic,” it says.
Prognos expected in industrial output grew by 5.4 percent this year, and the service sector saw a smaller increase of 3.0 percent. The institute assumes that a possible fourth pandemic wave will not cause any major economic damage due to the progress in vaccination and that the supply bottlenecks in the industry will gradually be reduced.
However, not all sectors will benefit equally from the upturn. According to Prognos, the growth winners in the industry this year after the slump 2020 are above all the vehicle construction (plus 9.5 percent) and mechanical engineering (plus 7.1 percent), which will benefit from the upturn in the global economy benefit. These sectors should also grow dynamically in the coming year. The experts also believe that the metal industry, electrical engineering and the rubber and plastics sector will have an above-average recovery. on the other hand, they are likely to shrink or almost stagnate. “These examples show that even a strong upswing cannot stop structural change,” says the study.
According to Prognos, the growth winners in the service sector will be restaurants, hotels and other accommodation providers. After the historic slump in the Corona crisis year, economic output 2021 in the hospitality industry is likely to increase by around 20 percent, but less than expected at the beginning of the year (plus 28 percent). In the coming year, the experts believe an increase of 29 percent is possible. Overall, the pre-crisis level of value added will thus be achieved again 2022. A strong recovery is also expected for transport and storage. Prognos predicts higher growth rates for retail, especially in the coming year.