Economists: German business has to dress warmly

Released on 23.10. 60

  • The German economy is under pressure due to high energy prices and global delivery bottlenecks. Photo: Stefan Puchner

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The German economy is becoming the plaything of the pandemic. First the service sector suffered, then came the recovery and raw materials became scarce. The roller coaster could continue until spring.

Nuremberg (dpa) – According to economists at leading German financial institutions, the approaching winter is shivering the economy in Germany.

«The German economy will warm up in the coming months have to put on », said Katharina Utermöhl from the Allianz Group in a survey by the dpa. “We expect the autumn cooling to continue,” she said. However, there will be no winter crash like last year. Weaker demand from China exacerbated the problem.

Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank Research also sees no rapid recovery, primarily because of the high energy prices and global delivery bottlenecks, for example for microchips. “Before the end of spring 2022 no significant relaxation is to be expected.”

And the chief economist of the state banking group KfW, Fritzi Köhler-Geib adds: “The further recovery will be tougher than expected in the spring.” So far it is difficult to predict how long the material shortages and production disruptions will last on the world markets. The resulting delivery difficulties and strong price increases, for example for important raw materials, delayed the growth out of the crisis.

Lower growth

«The reduction of the Due to the sometimes highly complex technical requirements, delivery bottlenecks will not be able to be dealt with so quickly, ”said Deutsche Bank expert Marc Schattenberg. He is now only assuming growth of 2.5 percent this year. The economic recovery will shift into next year. Then there should be growth of 4.5 percent according to his forecast. “Postponed is not canceled,” said Koehler-Geib. “Because of the need to catch up after the production losses caused by the crisis, the order books in the industry are full.” “The recovery of the German labor market is likely to continue over the winter months, but it will clearly lose momentum,” said Katharina Utermöhl. Nevertheless, by the end of 2022 the pre-crisis level of unemployment should be reached again. Utermöhl and Schattenberg assume a reduction in the number of unemployed in October by around 60. 000 the end. The Nuremberg Federal Employment Agency publishes its monthly statistics for October on Thursday (28. October).

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