Nuremberg (dpa) – The economists of leading financial institutions in Germany do not currently see the increased risk of a long-lasting or even out of control price spiral.
«Inflation has 2021 puts in turbo gear, but already 2022 you will probably run out of breath again, “said Katharina Utermöhl, economist at the Allianz Group in a survey by the German press agency. Marc Schattenberg from Deutsche Bank Research stated: “The currently observable increased monthly inflation rates are largely determined by temporary influences.” He expects inflation in the euro area to level off around the target of almost two percent set by the European Central Bank in the next few years even though the price-driving effects such as the shortage of microchips or the high raw material prices will not, from their point of view, dissolve as quickly as hoped. “As long as the wage agreements remain moderate, there is not much to suggest that we run into permanent inflation,” she said. “In some areas, wages can certainly rise, for example due to the shortage of skilled workers, but the temporarily high rates of inflation should not be taken up 1: 1 in the collective bargaining.”
Figures not necessarily comparable
In August, the inflation rate in Germany was 3.9 percent and was thus significantly higher. However, this is also due to base and special effects, because inflation was particularly low last year at 0.5 percent, primarily due to the effects of the corona pandemic. Among other things, the temporarily lowered VAT alone ensured a lower price increase.
In order to get into a galloping price surge, there must be further effects, such as a price-wage spiral, said Katharina Utermöhl. “This is not in sight,” she emphasized. “I currently see no reason why a visit to a restaurant has to cost more in the medium term.”
Economists expect German economic output to grow by a good three percent in the current year. “In the next year we expect an even stronger growth of 4.3 percent,” said Schattenberg. “Demand from private households is already brisk, but there is still pent-up purchasing power,” emphasized the expert from Deutsche Bank Research. “We can also see that short-time working has fallen sharply over the summer.” said Schattenberg. The number of unemployed could decrease by around 110. 000, seasonally adjusted by 30. 000. The Federal Employment Agency will announce its September figures next Thursday (30. September). In August there were around 2. 58 million people nationwide without a job. The unemployment rate was 5.6 percent.
Fritzi Köhler-Geib, chief economist of the state banking group KfW, also anticipates positive developments on the labor market. “In the year 2022, the strong recovery on the labor market will probably be fully reflected in the figures: According to our forecast, we will have half a million more people in employment than this year, and the unemployment rate should be 5.3 Percent are considerably lower, ”she emphasized. It could already fall to 5.7 percent this year – but only if there are no further restrictions, at least for those who have been vaccinated, in the wake of the corona pandemic.
Continued shortage of skilled workers
Veronika Grimm, member of the Federal Government’s Advisory Council, also sees limiting factors for the economy on the labor market – for example, when it comes to supplying companies with specialists. “Immigration was almost completely absent during the corona crisis,” she said, referring to the international exchange that practically came to a standstill during the corona pandemic led to a labor shortage. Employees have also reoriented themselves, for example in the direction of retail, and are therefore no longer available in the hospitality industry. “The employers will also have to improve their wages,” stressed Grimm, with a view to possibly better pay and working conditions Consequences of the corona pandemic will come. “I believe that in the service sector we will maintain a kind of 90 – percent economy,” she said.