Released on 16.09. 2021
- The DIW Berlin logo. Photo: Lukas Schulze
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Delivery bottlenecks and material shortages: The DIW is lowering its forecast for this year’s economic growth. In the coming year it should look different.
Berlin (dpa) – The German Institute for Economic Research ( DIW) is expecting significantly less economic growth for the Federal Republic of Germany this year. The gross domestic product is likely to rise by 2.1 percent, announced the DIW on Thursday.
So far, the researchers had expected growth of 3.2 percent. For the coming year, however, the economy is expected to pick up by 4.9 percent. Previously, the DIW had forecast 4.3 percent.
Delivery bottlenecks and material shortages
The main reason for the pessimism this year is the ongoing supply bottlenecks and material shortages in industry, which lead to numerous problems in the international trade in goods l go back. Although the world economy is humming, the German economic engine is stuttering, according to the DIW. The service providers would have benefited from a quieter Corona situation in the summer. Due to the increasing incidence figures in winter, however, dampers are to be expected.
Around the turn of the year, the production backlog in the industry should gradually resolve itself, according to DIW. Since the pandemic will also increasingly be overcome from spring onwards, the service providers have also turned on a recovery course.
Like many other economists and institutions, the DIW does not rate the higher inflation as worrying. The inflation is mainly due to special effects that should expire in the coming year. From 2022 inflation will fall to 2 percent and below. In August, the inflation rate rose to 3.9 percent, its highest level since the end of 1993.